Since the release of encouraging November inflation data earlier this month, the market is abuzz with expectation that interest rate hikes are a thing of the past.
In fact, the market liked the data so much – a drop from 4.9% inflation in Oct to 4.3% in November – that it has now priced in the next interest rate movement as down, with at least two rate reductions forecast by the end of 2024. But is that really likely?
All four of our big banks say yes, with ANZ, NAB, CBA and Westpac all predicting a rates hold for the month of February when the RBA reconvenes for its first 2024 board meeting next month. This comes on the back of the cash rate being left on hold at 4.35% in December. The Big 4 are also in agreement that a cut is on the cards this year, though predictions on when and how many differ by bank.
These optimistic estimates were no doubt influenced by ABS reports of a steady unemployment rate of 3.9% for December, in line with market predictions. Further bolstering market confidence is news that employers shed 106,000 full-time jobs in December – numbers unseen since Covid lockdowns.
However, with rising tensions in the Red Sea threatening global energy supplies and potentially impacting shipping and prices (not only on gasoline but all goods normally routed through the area) it’s easy to make a case for why rates may not go down, but actually increase. Though the RBA has forecast inflation coming down this year, there’s a good chance it won’t have reached the RBA’s target of 2-3% by year’s end.
Factoring in the current global unrest, monthly inflation only has to average 0.3% over the second half of the year, rather than the 0.2% optimistically assumed, for inflation to still be at around 4% by the end of 2024. The next CPI index is due to be published by month’s end and likely to cause a wave of forecast adjustments. But if the month-on-month rate of 0.33% for CPI in November repeated for 12 months, it would deliver just over 4% inflation. In order not to exceed the RBA’s 3% target, we’d need to see a rather drastic month-on-month change averaging 0.24%, giving us little wiggle room to compensate for pressing global economic factors.
For comparison, there have been only two occasions in the last six months when CPI has risen less than 0.3% – July’s 0.25% increase, and October’s -0.33% decrease, the latter of which was driven by a one-off drop in gasoline prices which is almost impossible to imagine happening again this year. If anything, gasoline prices are tipped to rise.
Yet still, CBA has come out predicting three cuts this year, with the first to arrive in September. Westpac is slightly more modest, predicting two cuts, with the first in August. Both NAB and ANZ predict just one cut towards the end of the year. But while mortgage holders might welcome such forecasts with open arms, caution and vigilance is advised – the RBA has warned they might not be done just yet.
